Development of Scenarios for Health Expenditures in the New EU Member States: Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Additionally, future changes in the labour market participation and their impact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the new EU Member States will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic) and to try to keep the premium needed to cover expenditures under control. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.

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